Fuzzy Math in Connecticut

Fuzzy Math in Connecticut

By Nicole Duran

June 7, 2006

Alan Schlesinger spent 12 years in the Connecticut state House, served two terms as mayor of Derby, and thrice ran for Congress. He also became the Republican nominee for Senate last month – but that is not the main reason why he thinks he can oust Sen. Joe Lieberman (D) in November.

Lieberman, the 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee and popular three-term Senator, did not look vulnerable a year ago.

But that was before cable television executive Ned Lamont (D) fired up the liberal base and challenged Lieberman for his unwavering support of the Iraq war and other conservative stances.

Lamont captured one-third of the delegates’ votes at last month’s state Democratic convention, enough to force Lieberman into an Aug. 8 primary – and give Republicans an opening, Schlesinger says.

Schlesinger, a lawyer in private practice for the past 11 years, entered the race in April.

He said he saw a three-way race brewing and the potential for a Republican upset such as the one Lowell Weicker® engineered in 1970 when then-Sen. Thomas Dodd (D-Conn.) found himself censured by the Senate and in real trouble with the Democratic base at home.

Dodd withdrew from the state Democratic convention and sought re-election as an Independent. He and the Democratic nominee, Joseph Duffey, lost to Weicker, who was then a one-term Congressman with fairly low name recognition. Weicker, who went on to serve three terms until being ousted by Lieberman 18 years later, took 42 percent of the vote in 1970.

Of course, a GOP win under this scenario requires Lieberman to be so spooked by Lamont that he pulls out of the primary and runs as an Independent – or it has Lamont winning the Democratic nod and Lieberman deciding to continue as an Independent.

Lieberman has not ruled out an Independent bid but is not preparing for one either, according to his campaign.

“We are 100 percent focused on winning the Democratic primary and we fully expect to win,” said Sean Smith, Lieberman’s campaign manager.

If Lieberman lost and wanted to run as an Independent he would have to submit his signatures for an Independent bid by Aug. 9, the day after the primary.

Smith said there is no petition drive under way or any other effort to secure Lieberman a spot on the November ballot as an Independent.

Even if the general election is just a two-way matchup between a Democrat and a Republican, Schlesinger thinks he can win.

“I’m not a sacrificial lamb,” he insisted.

But the numbers are stacked against him.

Connecticut favored Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) over President Bush by 54 percent to 44 percent in 2004. Lieberman won re-election while he was simultaneously seeking the vice presidency with 63 percent of the vote in 2000. And though Republican Gov. Jodi Rell is immensely popular, Republican governors in Northeastern states have had very short coattails in recent elections.

Still, Schlesinger believes there is room for him to grow.

Lamont is running as a traditional liberal candidate and that is his base of support, Schlesinger said. That is pulling Lieberman to the left, leaving conservatives and Republican-leaning Independents up for grabs in November, he reasoned.

If Lieberman survives the primary, the Democratic Party will be fractured and Lieberman will be seriously wounded, Schlesinger’s theory continues. Liberal voters may choose to skip the Senate contest come November or lodge a protest vote by supporting the Green Party candidate.

The Green Party has qualified for a spot on the November ballot. In a close contest, even just a small percentage of protest votes could sway the election, he added.

But Schlesinger’s name identification is in the single digits. He is just beginning to assemble his campaign, and he has not been in the race long enough to have even filed a campaign finance report with the Federal Election Commission.

Lieberman, by contrast, has raised almost $7 million to date, while Lamont is nearing $2 million, half of which came from his own pocket.

National Democrats are so unconcerned about the possibility of the seat flipping that when Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman Karl Frisch was asked what he made of Schlesinger’s enthusiasm, he jokingly responded: “Who?”

The Lieberman campaign, however, is not laughing.

“Ned Lamont is playing right into the Republicans’ hands by weakening Joe Lieberman and forcing him to spend millions of dollars in the primary,” Smith said. “The Republicans hope that they will be able to pick this seat up.”

Lamont’s camp dismisses the notion that Schlesinger has a fighting chance.

“Connecticut is a very Democratic state,” said Lamont spokeswoman Liz Dupont-Diehl. “Our candidacy has energized thousands of Democratic voters.”

Then Dupont-Diehl went to the heart of what is making the Connecticut Senate race interesting – the idea that Lieberman has strayed so far to the right that he is more vulnerable to another Democrat than a Republican.

“Joe has always been more popular among Republicans than Democrats, and I think the Democratic voters are going to have the numbers and the turnout to decide this election in August and November,” she said.

Smith scoffed at that assertion, countering that Lamont’s support is concentrated among anti-war activists outside of the state.

“The fact that Ned has generated so much support from the national netroots says a lot,” Smith said, pointing to endorsements such as the one Lamont just secured from MoveOn.org. “We have a lot of support in Connecticut. ... And Ned is supported mostly by out-of-state political activists.”

MoveOn.org and Democracy for America, the group that grew out of Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean’s unsuccessful presidential bid, are hosting a rally for Lamont on Thursday in New Haven.

“The people who are going to decide this election reside in Connecticut,” Smith said. “And that is who we are focused on communicating to and whom we’re asking for their support.”