MSNBC: "Lamont's 2006 primary victory provides a template for Obama"
Tom Curry, msnbc.com, February 5th, 2008
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22978049
Obama’s coalition
Obama’s South Carolina victory and his second-place finish in New Hampshire made clear that he has drawn most of his support from a coalition of highly educated, affluent professionals, young voters, and African-Americans.
If Obama can assemble that same winning coalition in Connecticut, he is likely to do it again in Maryland, Pennsylvania, and other states that vote after this week.
And Tuesday’s outcome in Connecticut is likely to be broadcast even as voters in Arizona, California and other western states are still casting their ballots.
A big victory in Connecticut could ripple 3,000 miles to the Pacific Coast on Tuesday.
The prototype for how Obama could win Connecticut on Tuesday? The 2006 Senate primary.
The Establishment candidate was Sen. Joe Lieberman, the Democratic Party’s 2000 vice presidential nominee; the insurgent was Ned Lamont, a mostly self-financed antiwar candidate. Lamont won the primary with 52 percent of the vote.
In Tuesday’s primary Clinton is playing the Establishment favorite; Obama is taking Lamont’s role as the insurgent.
Lamont sees parallel with 2006 victory
Lamont, who is co-chair of Obama’s Connecticut campaign, sees the similarities between his win in August 2006 and Obama’s campaign: “Same grassroots/netroots energy and support. Barack is doing better with institutional support — party brass and unions — than I did in the primary.”
He added that, “seniors tend to lean towards the incumbent; I was crushed by age 60 and older voters and most of them see Hillary as the incumbent, so Barack may need more time to make that sale.”
Lamont added that Obama “will do great with younger voters, ethnic voters, and better educated voters which helped me win the primary. The emphasis is making sure they vote; we know that seniors vote.”
Clinton supporter Richard Blumenthal, the state’s attorney general, who attended Monday’s event in New Haven, rejected the idea that the Lamont 2006 prototype is the model for an Obama victory Tuesday.
“There’s no comparison,” he said. “Lamont-Lieberman was about the war; it was not just a difference in style or personality. It was a really stark difference on a predominant issue. This one is totally different. I think this is really about experience and qualifications, and about the economy.”
Lamont’s victory hinged on these cities and towns, places where Obama’s chances of success will be decided as well on Tuesday:
- Hartford: The state capitol and a city with a population that is 40 percent black and 40 percent Latino. Lamont carried it with 51 percent; Obama should do at least as well.
- West Hartford: An affluent suburb where 25 percent of the population has graduate or professional degrees. This town of 63,000 people has ten Jewish synagogues, temples, and congregations. It should be a good test case of Obama’s appeal to Jewish Democrats. Lamont narrowly carried West Hartford in the 2006 primary.
- Waterbury: An old industrial city and the place where former president Bill Clinton came to rally support for Lieberman two weeks before the 2006 primary. Clinton helped: Lieberman carried Waterbury by a landslide over Lamont. Hillary Clinton needs a similar margin in Waterbury in order to win statewide.
- Middletown and New Haven: Academia, home to Wesleyan University and Yale University, respectively. Bastions of Lamont strength in the 2006 primary. They should provide lots of votes for Obama.
- Wilton, Westport, and Greenwich: Blue-chip communities in the Fairfield County suburbs of New York City, home to investment bankers, lawyers, doctors and other wealthy Democrats. Lamont easily carried all three places in the primary and these should be Obama territory as well.
- Bridgeport: Once an industrial powerhouse of America’s World War II crusade, this is now a gritty, struggling city with a population that is one-third African-American and one-third Latino. Only four percent of the population has a graduate or professional degree. Lieberman narrowly carried Bridgeport in the 2006 primary.
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